Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
191 Weber St. 16.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 12 - 8 -2.1      +0.2 170 -2.3 238 76.0 33 0.0 1 0.0 1
192 Eastern Washington 17.1%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -2.1      -0.3 191 -1.8 220 68.9 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
198 Montana 15.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -2.3      -1.3 218 -1.1 196 67.4 217 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 Northern Colorado 13.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -3.0      -2.7 255 -0.4 177 66.7 238 0.0 1 0.0 1
226 Southern Utah 12.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -3.5      -2.0 236 -1.5 211 75.1 49 0.0 1 0.0 1
270 Portland St. 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 10 -6.2      -1.1 208 -5.2 316 71.5 103 0.0 1 0.0 1
278 Northern Arizona 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -6.7      -2.1 241 -4.6 305 70.6 127 0.0 1 0.0 1
279 Montana St. 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 11 -6.7      -0.4 197 -6.3 339 74.1 61 0.0 1 0.0 1
280 Sacramento St. 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 11 -6.8      -4.5 303 -2.3 239 68.4 185 0.0 1 0.0 1
335 Idaho St. 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 20 6 - 14 -11.7      -4.4 299 -7.3 346 67.7 208 0.0 1 0.0 1
338 Idaho 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 14 -12.5      -6.2 328 -6.3 338 64.1 303 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Weber St. 3.9 21.8 16.7 13.4 12.0 9.8 8.0 6.4 5.1 3.3 2.4 1.0
Eastern Washington 3.9 21.7 16.7 13.6 11.7 10.2 8.3 6.1 5.1 3.6 2.0 1.0
Montana 4.0 19.9 16.4 14.3 12.2 9.9 8.5 7.0 4.9 3.7 2.3 1.0
Northern Colorado 4.3 17.7 15.3 13.4 11.6 9.9 9.2 7.4 6.3 4.7 3.1 1.4
Southern Utah 4.6 15.1 13.8 12.7 11.8 10.9 9.6 8.3 7.0 5.4 3.8 1.6
Portland St. 6.0 6.7 7.9 8.6 9.9 10.7 11.2 10.9 11.0 10.0 8.2 4.8
Northern Arizona 6.2 6.0 7.3 7.9 9.2 9.8 10.6 11.3 11.5 11.0 9.5 5.9
Montana St. 6.2 5.7 7.0 8.5 9.4 10.1 11.2 11.5 11.2 10.9 9.0 5.6
Sacramento St. 6.2 5.6 6.8 8.3 9.7 10.0 11.0 11.6 11.2 10.8 9.0 6.0
Idaho St. 8.5 0.9 1.7 2.4 3.5 4.7 5.9 9.1 11.0 15.4 20.8 24.6
Idaho 8.9 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.7 4.2 5.3 7.8 10.6 14.9 21.2 29.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Weber St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 6.7 7.8 9.8 10.6 10.7 10.6 9.6 7.7 6.0 3.9 2.3 0.6
Eastern Washington 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.2 3.5 5.1 6.6 8.4 9.8 10.5 10.7 10.5 9.3 8.3 6.2 3.6 1.9 0.5
Montana 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.6 5.3 6.8 8.2 9.8 11.0 10.9 10.5 9.7 7.4 5.6 3.5 1.6 0.5
Northern Colorado 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.0 4.7 6.0 7.6 8.9 9.8 10.4 10.4 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.3
Southern Utah 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.1 6.7 8.1 9.5 10.4 10.2 10.3 9.1 7.6 5.9 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.3
Portland St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 7.3 8.7 9.5 10.2 10.5 9.9 8.6 6.9 5.6 4.1 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Northern Arizona 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.7 4.5 6.0 8.2 9.1 10.1 10.4 9.8 9.0 7.9 6.5 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Montana St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.4 6.2 7.4 9.0 9.7 10.6 10.3 9.0 8.5 7.0 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1
Sacramento St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.3 6.1 7.5 9.2 10.0 10.3 10.2 9.6 8.2 6.6 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Idaho St. 6 - 14 1.6 4.4 7.4 10.0 11.1 11.8 11.5 10.2 8.5 7.3 5.5 3.9 2.8 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Idaho 6 - 14 2.2 5.3 9.1 11.3 12.1 12.0 11.2 9.8 8.3 6.0 4.7 3.4 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Weber St. 21.8% 15.1 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 21.7% 15.2 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
Montana 19.9% 14.0 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 17.7% 11.9 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 15.1% 10.3 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 6.7% 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 6.0% 3.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 5.7% 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 5.6% 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Weber St. 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.1 83.3 0.0%
Eastern Washington 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.0 5.0 5.4 82.9 0.0%
Montana 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.2 4.7 5.4 84.4 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.7 4.4 5.2 86.1 0.0%
Southern Utah 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.0 87.8 0.0%
Portland St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.5 93.7 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 94.7 0.0%
Montana St. 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 94.5 0.0%
Sacramento St. 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.1 94.6 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 98.7 0.0%
Idaho 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Weber St. 16.7% 2.7% 15.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 17.1% 2.6% 16.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 15.6% 2.9% 14.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.9% 2.8% 12.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 12.2% 2.8% 10.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 6.3% 2.2% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.3% 1.7% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 5.5% 1.9% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 5.4% 2.0% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 89.0% 0.9 11.0 88.9 0.1
2nd Round 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0